A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
